Martingale Grid Risk Calculator
Defaults match Valexos Pro V1.038 — dynamic grid distance, equity protection, and take-profit exit are all modelled. Click any value to type it directly.
This tool simulates the unrealised loss of a martingale grid strategy on XAUUSD when price moves against the grid. The defaults are calibrated to match Valexos Pro V1.038 — including its dynamic grid distance, equity protection, and take-profit exit. Move any slider — or click any value to type it directly.
What is a “point”?
On XAUUSD, 1 point = $0.01 of price movement. So 100 pts = $1.00 price change, and 10,000 pts = $100. The MT4/MT5 platform reports adverse moves in points — this is the unit used everywhere on this page.
How the grid works
- Starting lot — size of position #1.
- Lot multiplier — each next position is N× the previous (1.3× = Valexos Pro default).
- Grid step — points of adverse move between consecutive entries.
- Adverse move — how far price has gone against the most recent (largest) entry.
Dynamic grid distance (EA)
Valexos Pro uses a fixed step for the first orderDyn orders (default 5 × 200pt), then expands the step exponentially:step(n) = dynStart × multiplier^(n − orderDyn).
- Pos 1–5: 200pt each (fixed phase)
- Pos 6:
200 × 1.2¹ = 240pt - Pos 10:
200 × 1.2⁵ ≈ 497pt - Pos 20:
200 × 1.2¹⁵ ≈ 3,083pt
Switch this off to model a flat-step grid instead.
Equity Protection cap (EA)
The EA closes all positions the moment unrealised loss hits MaxLossAmount (default $1,200). With this toggle on, the calculator caps displayed loss at the EP threshold — and shows what the loss would have been without the cut-off. Add ~10% for slippage on the emergency close.
Multi-bot note: EP is per-EA-instance. With N bots each on its own account, total cap = N × threshold. On a single shared account, only the first bot to trigger fires.
Take Profit exit (EA)
The grid closes profitably when price recovers to NoLoss + tpPoints. NoLoss is the volume-weighted breakeven of all open positions. The calculator shows:
- Recovery to TP — points of price rebound needed for the grid to close in profit.
- Profit at TP — dollar profit if the rebound completes.
Most grids die at position 3–7 with a TP exit — the deep positions on the heatmap are tail events.
Margin Health (broker-side)
- Used margin — capital locked:
lots × 100 × price ÷ leverage - Equity — balance minus current unrealised loss.
- Margin level —
equity ÷ used margin × 100%. Drops below stop-out → broker force-closes. - Distance to margin call — points of further price movement until stop-out triggers.
Risk thresholds
Account-level loss is colour-graded:
- Safe < 2%
- Moderate 2–5%
- High 5–15%
- Extreme > 15%
- EP Cap was hit — EA closed grid
Suggested workflow
- Confirm account size & leverage match your broker.
- Match EA Risk Controls (Dynamic distance, EP cap, TP exit) to your actual settings.
- Move open positions & adverse move to model a scenario.
- Watch the distance to margin call, recovery to TP, and the heatmap.
- If running multiple bots, increase number of bots to see combined risk.
What this tool still doesn't model
- Spread, swap, commission — adds ~3–5% to actual losses.
- Hedging — Buy & Sell grids running simultaneously.
- Slippage on EP close — assumed at +10% above threshold; real number varies.
- News & time filters, EOW close, daily close — these reduce the frequency of bad scenarios but not their magnitude.
- Drawdown reduction algorithm — closes (first loser + last winner) pairs, real-world DD smaller.
This is a teaching tool — not financial advice.
| Pos \ Pts | 50 | 100 | 200 | 500 | 1,000 | 2,000 | 3,000 | 5,000 | 7,500 | 10,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.3% |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | EP 12.0% |
| 7 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 9.6% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% |
| 8 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 8.6% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% |
| 9 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 8.9% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% |
| 10 | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% |
| 12 | 11.0% | 11.4% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% |
| 15 | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% |
| 20 | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% | EP 12.0% |
| # | Lot | $/pt | Step to next | Points in loss | Position loss | Cumulative loss | Acct risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0100 | $0.0100 | 200 pts | 2686 | -$26.86 | -$26.86 | 0.27% |
| 2 | 0.0130 | $0.0130 | 200 pts | 2486 | -$32.32 | -$59.18 | 0.59% |
| 3 | 0.0169 | $0.0169 | 200 pts | 2286 | -$38.63 | -$97.81 | 0.98% |
| 4 | 0.0220 | $0.0220 | 200 pts | 2086 | -$45.89 | -$143.70 | 1.44% |
| 5 | 0.0286 | $0.0286 | 240 pts | 1886 | -$53.94 | -$197.64 | 1.98% |
| 6 | 0.0371 | $0.0371 | 288 pts | 1646 | -$61.07 | -$258.71 | 2.59% |
| 7 | 0.0483 | $0.0483 | 346 pts | 1358 | -$65.59 | -$324.30 | 3.24% |
| 8 | 0.0627 | $0.0627 | 415 pts | 1012 | -$63.48 | -$387.77 | 3.88% |
| 9 | 0.0816 | $0.0816 | 498 pts | 598 | -$48.77 | -$436.54 | 4.37% |
| 10 | 0.1060 | $0.1060 | — | 100 | -$10.60 | -$447.14 | 4.47% |